Do you think manual transmissions will ever become obsolete?

Do you think manuals will ever di

  • Yes

    Votes: 15 30.6%
  • No

    Votes: 34 69.4%

  • Total voters
    49
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#44
KevRC4130 said:
A year ago I would have said manuals would never become obsolete, but now that many super cars (Enzo, M5, SLR McLaren, etc) aren't even available with a proper manual, I'm going to have to vote Yes, they are going to be obsolete. [:(]
What about the Carrera GT?
 
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#45
Nah...as long as it's cheaper to produce a manual, most car companies will continue with manuals. I know that in pakistan and India, an automatic transmission is something of an extreme luxury. I think that is changing in other countries though. Although, I do agree that manuals will become more of a novelty, than practicality.

Sean
 
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#46
Sean: i think they call it economies of scale in econ class. once a product reaches a certain production number, it'll become cheap, and maintain the status. i would guess that more than 50% of the autos manufactured today will have automatic transmissions. and that is being conservative. the more automatics are made and sold, and improved upon, the cost of it will go down. where as when the manual sales start sliding, price to produce will go up, and some plants may even stop making them altogether, or change their line to autos, or the likes of SMG.. who knows.

i'm beginning to wonder if car companies are charging $1000+ for automatics, because they can, and the buyers expect to, and not because they have to.

Chesty (edit: pete): remember posting here? but you never mentioned your first name.. the same reason why Emile called me jason earlier. [:D] edit: or you can just click on the profile.. DUH!! [:I]
 
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#47
Yeah, that is economies of scale (on a global level), but I don't think 50% of cars sold are sold with automatics. I think most if not all auto manufacturers offer automatics, but they don't offer automatics in all countries. For example, in my buyer behavior class, I did a research survey of France and it turns out that in France one is socially viewed as a handicapped person if they drive an automatic (even to this day). So something like 70-80% of cars sold in france are manuals.

I agree that over a LONG period of time, what you said will eventually happen; I mean, look at history; when autos came out, how many miles did they last, and how expensive were they? Also look at computers and cars in general. (Obviously inflation plays a part in pricing, but keeping inflation at a constant and factoring for it and technology, one would find that prices of computers and cars dropped significantly.

Sean
 
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#48
bahnstormer said:
smg is crap just so u all know
the new one on the m5 smg3 is ok,
but so far, vw's dsg has been getting
much better reviews from the critics..
Actually, on the track, SMG performs much better. On the street, DSG performs better. DSG has the two clutches and it pre-selects the higher gear so that when you upshift, the shift is completely instantaneous. What the critics and everyone do NOT tell you is that there is a bit of a delay if, let's say you upshift from 1-2 and 2-3 and then you suddenly decide to downshift from 3-2. The system thinks you're going to upshift to 4th next and pre-selects that gear.
SMG shifts up and down evenly and very quickly, no surprises.
 
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#49
When you look at all of the technologies that have been replaced over the years, all have advanced or become obsolete besides the manual gearbox. The manual will just keep advancing more and more, but I highly doubt that it will ever disappear, too many people use it, too many people need it, and too many people can't live without it. As for the SMG in the new M5, they had to use one. The way that the new SMG works is that it partially engages the next gear so that the shifts can be even quicker. Also, BMW knew that making a 7-speed manual gearbox would be way too complex for the average driver.
 
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#50
MrElussive said:
Nope, I don't agree. You're right about manual being available in the UK on the E and CLK classes. As for your trips to Europe, I don't agree. When I used to travel to Europe, I was always surrounded by automatic transmission Mercedes among other cars. What you don't understand is that automatic vs manual is no longer really a "preference". Automatic is considered a "luxury" so a lot of nice cars are expected to come standard with automatic transmission.
You don’t agree that most of Europe drives manual? I’m not sure where you went, but nearly everywhere I’ve been, too, (I’ve been all over Western, Central, Eastern, Scandinavian, and Southern Europe, in big cities and small) and I’m willing to bet 80% or more (see link below) of the cars in Europe are manual. Either you’re delusional or just fictionalizing your experience for the sake of argument, either way, you are so wrong.

What don’t you understand that some car companies over in Europe DON’T even offer autos on all there cars??Furthermore, the autos that do come standard on M-Bs in Europe are the bigger V6s and V8s, of which there are fewer to being with. Most of the Es,Cs, and CLKs, are sold in diesels and manuals. And notice how you’re so quick to bring up Mercedes, because BMW doesn’t fit so neatly into your little argument—because the 3,5,Z, and X5 3.0 all come STANDARD with manuals…so are they not luxury cars? Do luxury buyers not buy them with manuals???? And what VW, Opel, Fiat, Citroen, etc, etc. Get it? There are other car companies out there besides Mercedes…and furthermore, what don’t you understand that the luxury segment is not the end all, be all of transmissions. This thread was about manuals going obsolete industry-wide, not just in a handful of manufacturers.

So, how’s bout them apples. You think people in Europe are shelling out 65K for auto 545s and E500s. Sure there are few, but these models make up a minority of purchases in Europe. And even among the 5er and 3er models, most are often diesels and smaller gas engines (2.5s, even the 3.0 is a "big" engine to them) with manuals; same goes for Mercedes’s Cs and Es. Oh, and by the way, not all those M-B cars in Europe fall into the luxury category either. Ever see an A-class or Smart car and others that come with cloth…hmm, luxurious, no?


MrElussive said:
As for fuel economy, I stand by what I said. Maybe you could throw one random specification in somebody's face to convince them, but we are on a BMW car forum, and basically I know better. You should also know that most people opt for manual transmission for performance reasons, and fuel economy and performance definitely do not go together.

B6 Audi S4 fuel stats:
Manual: 15/21
Tiptronic: 18/24

You should also go checkout the mbusa.com web site and look at every MB car that is offered in both manual and automatic. You'll notice that the automatic always delivers similar or slightly better fuel economy. Another thing to checkout is BMW's web site, the X5 3.0i with the 6-speed manual and 5-speed automatic. The manual delivers 15/21 and the auto delivers 16/21.
So what am I going to look? The one (or two?) base C model that comes with a manual? Yeah, good one. At least my example was relevant, I post BMW numbers and you spit out Audi figs, when most of their U.S. cars are geared for automatic driving?? Mercedes? Again, good ole reliable…same thing, 95% of their U.S. cars are autos and geared accordingly. Great point… [rolleyes]

See: http://www.theautochannel.com/news/2004/11/11/277753.html
 
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#51
Wallie, You are misunderstanding my points:

1.) Automatic transmissions are starting to deliver better fuel economy than the manual versions. "Geared for US driving" means nothing...better fuel economy is better fuel economy. Give it some more time and most auto cars will be delivering better fuel economy than the manual transmission version of that same car. My examples were not limited to "two Mercedes"....the examples I gave you were the Audi S4, BMW X5 3.0i, and several Mercedes (C Coupe, C Sedan, -230 and 320 versions of both cars-, SLK350, all of which are available in manual and auto). I could have given you some more non-Mercedes figures too, but I figured you got my point.

2.) I also "stuck" to these car companies because they sell cars in the US. Citroen, Opel, Fiat do not sell cars here in the US and they also help backup my point of how automatic transmission is now considered a "luxury".

3.) Most places in Europe obviously prefer manual transmission. But depending on where you are in Europe (I used to go to Cannes, France and around there), you may not encounter very many manual transmission cars. You can even head to places in Europe where it's standard to only be driven around!
 
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#52
MrElussive said:
Wallie, You are misunderstanding my points:

1.) Automatic transmissions are starting to deliver better fuel economy than the manual versions. "Geared for US driving" means nothing...better fuel economy is better fuel economy. Give it some more time and most auto cars will be delivering better fuel economy than the manual transmission version of that same car. My examples were not limited to "two Mercedes"....the examples I gave you were the Audi S4, BMW X5 3.0i, and several Mercedes (C Coupe, C Sedan, -230 and 320 versions of both cars-, SLK350, all of which are available in manual and auto). I could have given you some more non-Mercedes figures too, but I figured you got my point.
Yes, I guess I am misunderstanding your points, but with good reason--they're not totally accurate and in some caes, not even relevant to topic at hand.

I made a remark that manuals in general get better fuel economy, and the reason why I said this was because Europeans believe that is one of the several advantages to owning a manual. And the fact remains, in general, it's the truth. You're attempt to prove otherwise by spitting out a few models where the opposite is true doesn't change the larger fact. In America, where most automatics are bought and sold, we are not as concerned about fuel economy. Sure we had a recent jump in gas prices, but that didn't stop people from buying V8s, SUVs, etc. Geared for U.S. cars does mean something in that it is presumed most U.S. cars are automatics, and as such, it's not too hard to believe that the manufacturers of said cars are improving the fuel economy on those car...but that doens't mean that most automatics now get better fuel economy thant most manuals.

As for your examples, I question your decision to include the high-performance S4--a gas guzzler either way--and not the regulars A4s (hmm, could it be the manual 1.8T and 3.0 A4s get better mileage than the automatic ones??) And about the "several" Mercedes you mention, only in the C230s (coupe and sedan) and C320 coupe can you get a manual, and you got lucky, M-B introduced a manny on the new SLK350. But this isn't exactly a "wide net" and you make it seem like the sample is more representative than it really is. PS. You can get a manual ML in Europe--what's is Avg. MPG?

MrElussive said:
2.) I also "stuck" to these car companies because they sell cars in the US. Citroen, Opel, Fiat do not sell cars here in the US and they also help backup my point of how automatic transmission is now considered a "luxury".
This is where you misunderstand my point. My point is that the auto market that is the key factor in this manual v. auto debate is larger than the U.S. market alone and larger than the luxury market. Europe's population is 450 million and growing; most of their cars are manual and will likely continue to be for at least the remainder of our lifetimes. Why did you just stick to car companies in the U.S.? There are other car companies out there. And yeah, so what, manuals don't sell well here, that doesn't mean, as this thread asks, that manuals will be obsolete--maybe in the U.S., and even then, not totally. Look at the bigger picture is what I'm saying. Also, it is interesting that Mercedes introduced a manual in its new SLK but not in the last one...trends??

MrElussive said:
3.) Most places in Europe obviously prefer manual transmission. But depending on where you are in Europe (I used to go to Cannes, France and around there), you may not encounter very many manual transmission cars. You can even head to places in Europe where it's standard to only be driven around!
Most places?? How about 95% of Europe? Monaco or Nice aren't exactly good representations of European-wide auto trends, either. Just because you got some rich folks cruising around the riveria in the backseat of an 745Li or Bentley doesn't mean they set the standard for the rest of Europe. Furthermore, if your whole argument is that automatics are considered a luxury (not really in the U.S. though) then you should also realize that most cars sold (world-wide) are not luxury cars.

You'd be surprised by how few people drive autos in the areas in Europe where they would be most useful--i.e. the Alpine countries and other mountainous areas. Rare was the day when I saw an auto-equipped car at stoplight in Switzerland, Austria, or Milan. You'd always see people rolling back at stoplights on the steep streets and no brake lights on the flat streets, and you can just see the cars parked along the curb--manual after manual--that's the way most of Europe is.

My argument is based on industry-wide and world-wide trends (but more specifically, Europe); fact is, most cars out there are small, manual-transmission equipped cars and I'm still willing to bet that's the way its going to continue for a while...In the end, I dont' think manual transmission cars will become obsolete for a long time to come.
 
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#53
A 6-speed manual transmission is available on the C240 and C320 Sedans (not the "C240 Luxury" and "C320 Luxury" though), and on the C320 Coupe. Mercedes gave the SLK350 a manual transmission because they wanted to be more sporty with this new SLK than the old one, because that was the old one's problem. But even the old SLK230 Kompressor and SLK320 had manual transmissions available in the US.

My overall point is that Automatics have started to make their way into Europe and you will see more and more new cars in Europe sold with automatic transmissions. And eventually, Europe will convert to automatic transmissions. I say "eventually" because it is still too soon to predict when it will really happen, but as I said before, just give it time.

The reasons to stick to manual were better fuel economy and faster acceleration. But modern automatic transmissions get almost as good, the same, or better fuel economy, and they deliver very close to or the same acceleration as manual transmissions. This is a very clear trend and I shouldn't have to keep spitting cars out at you for you to acknowledge this as I am sure you probably have a long time ago.

You are trying to say that manual transmission will be around in Europe for a LONG time. But the US market has basically pushed manual transmission aside for automatics, and my point is that Europeans will be doing this too, down the road (no pun intended). Europeans will very soon have very little reason to stick to manual transmission and they will slowly make that change to automatic.
 
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#54
MrElussive said:
A 6-speed manual transmission is available on the C240 and C320 Sedans (not the "C240 Luxury" and "C320 Luxury" though), and on the C320 Coupe. Mercedes gave the SLK350 a manual transmission because they wanted to be more sporty with this new SLK than the old one, because that was the old one's problem. But even the old SLK230 Kompressor and SLK320 had manual transmissions available in the US.

My overall point is that Automatics have started to make their way into Europe and you will see more and more new cars in Europe sold with automatic transmissions. And eventually, Europe will convert to automatic transmissions. I say "eventually" because it is still too soon to predict when it will really happen, but as I said before, just give it time.
The C240 sedan ONLY comes as a luxury model. And any way you dice it, your "sample" is still representative for two reasons: iyou're only looking at one car company and only in the U.S. You can buy nearly, if not all, Cs in Europe with a manual Find those A4 or ML europe specs yet? And you never answered my question: where does BMW fit into your argument. Last I checked, the new E90 is going to come standard with a 6-speed...even in the U.S.

Just give it time? Automatics have been around in the states now for nearly 50 years or more. If they would have made inroads in Europe, they should have begun doing so a long time ago. Sure, I admitted automatics are being sold there more now, and autos are only beginnig to make inroads there. But the trend is not that serious and there is more resistance than you'd like to believe.

MrElussive said:
The reasons to stick to manual were better fuel economy and faster acceleration. But modern automatic transmissions get almost as good, the same, or better fuel economy, and they deliver very close to or the same acceleration as manual transmissions. This is a very clear trend and I shouldn't have to keep spitting cars out at you for you to acknowledge this as I am sure you probably have a long time ago.
You keep sticking with this but your only proof is a handful of cars. Sure, the highest performance cars that happen to be quick (AMGs, new M5, etc.) and have automatics or SMG can accelerate as fast as comparable manual cars, but that doesn't mean that manuals for most of the cars that the majority of driving public buys are faster or deliver better economy. Again, look up A4, 3 series, 5 series, Z4, SLK, Mustang, and other manual/automatic 0-60 and 1/4 times. The automatic times are almost always slower--usually by up to half-a-second or more. What are the times on the S4 that you referenced before??? I shouldn't have to keep spitting numbers out for you to get the point. Maybe you go find a few exceptions to indulge yourself in, and then make market-forecast generalizations about them... [sing] [8]

"Of the three main vehicle markets of the developed world, Western Europe remains unique in that more than 80% of passenger cars (and an even higher proportion of light commercial vehicles) are sold with manual transmission. Although automatic transmissions are gaining a greater market share, especially in northern Europe (Germany, the UK, Benelux and Scandinavia) consumer resistance remains strong. Motorists with an interest in performance prefer changing gear for themselves, while those more concerned with economy still believe that - quite apart from their extra cost - automatic transmissions deliver inferior economy."

Part of this is economics related, part of it is cultural. Europeans have a tradition of driving manual equipped cars. You can find some exceptions and spout off MPG figs all you like, but the fact remains, if Europeans even think that automatics deliver worse economy, in addition to the fact that they have to pay extra for an automatic, then they'll stick with the manuals for a long time to come....
 
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#56
last time i checked, in the states, most cars come with manual standard. but there is an option check box with automatic next to it adding about a grand, and apparently around 90% of the car buying public in the states opts to check that box. in Europe currently not that many people check that box. be it practicality, cultural, whatever. there are some here on the board that speculate that trend in europe will change towards automatics. of course there are others in the board that speculate that it won't change. but speculations are just that, and whenever two differing opinions collide too long, it's JIHAD!!! well i can't say too much, since it too rambled on enough.

remember the fact that best tech usually starts from top models and trickles down. few years back, only top tier luxury rides had the NAV, now you can get it in cars in the below 20k range. once an innovation hits: better gas milage, higher #of gears, thus able to match manual's perf, automatics come out, it's only a matter of time. same w/ SMGs, "lower" BMWs now get their flavor, and it is a lower part, but the progress is happening. side airbags? HPS airbags? same thing. so if you apply the trickle down effect, small number of automatics that are delivering "skewed" numbers, will become the norm in the next few years. imo. and will continue to give people less reason to keep a manual. hey, anyone can be the stubborn old man, (and there will always be a few) but in the end it's the stubborn old man that ends up with inefficient way of doing things.. there's no right or wrong there, just one's opionion.

this is the reason why i think automatics, or their newer varients and even newer versions of the manual: SMG among others, will eventually take out the manuals, in everyday cars, (passenger, suvs etc.) don't know about heavy duty machinery, and frankly couldn't give a rat's butt.

one of my biggest gripes on automatics was the gear selection. it makes me feel like a spectator, and not the driver. and due to only having 4 gears including overdrive (until recently) it was hard to pick the right gear. because of lack of gears, the first gear had to be taller than the manual counterpart, which usually had at least one extra gear, lower to get more pull to get a faster start. with 5 speed, and 6 speed automatics now becoming more common place, such concerns are being addressed. (that is why they are able to get close to manual times, and fuel economy imo.) i don't think there is a perfect system in place of the manual in the hands of a capable driver. but then again, there aren't too many capable drivers either, (no matter how highly you regard yourself chances you aren't that great.. i admit it.) at least technology is constantly evolving to make the car perform at its best.

on a side note, on my recent visit to the dealership, while getting my car "ipodded" i saw a bunch of ZHPs, in both sedan and coupe forms. coupes look pretty nice, and i now know i made the right decision w/ the silver cubes. [:D] know what they had in common? EVERY SINGLE one of them had the steptro.. [bigcry] and again, i turned a simple post into a long windy one.. *sigh*
 
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#57
Yeah, I think those ZHP cars should only be available in manual the way they were first introduced. I guess too many people didn't like it that way....come on, manual ain't THAT hard.
 
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#58
I love manual, specially a 6-speed, but SMG is very nice, SMGII isn't bad SMGI is a bit of a ..... ahahah not everything that comes out first is great, but SMGII is not that bad. I also equally like SMG as much as I like Manual since they are both the same thing other than it doesn't have a clutch for u to press. Automatics aren't my favorite but when it comes to traffic they are the best but I also like driving manual in light traffic but it does kill your left foot :p. SMG isn't that hard to learn to use, just takes a while, if you can't ever use it then throw your PC away and go buy yourself some pens and papers and perfect your writing because man...you got to be a noob not to know how to use SMG [rolleyes] [bmwdance]
 
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#59
I think they will eventually be phased out for SMG type transmissions for performance seekers. When I purchased my latest car, they had to do a US search to find a manual transmission and they found only 5 in the US.

I was originally looking for a used manual 330 (03' or 04'). My neighbor is a BMW salesman and I had him looking for one for an entire year. He never got one in.

News article: http://www.detnews.com/2004/autosinsider/0409/13/a01-271661.htm
another: http://www.autoblog.com/entry/2240359713746671

It might take a lot longer in Europe, but it's definitely the trend.
 
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#60
PhatBimmer said:
I also equally like SMG as much as I like Manual since they are both the same thing other than it doesn't have a clutch for u to press. Automatics aren't my favorite but when it comes to traffic they are the best but I also like driving manual in light traffic but it does kill your left foot :p.
I know that an SMG gearbox is a manual but to say that the only difference is that an SMG doesn't have a clutch is slightly missing the point. How easy is it in an SMG-equipped car to pull the next gear with computer-controlled precision? The whoe benefit of the manual, IMO, is that each gearchange is a real challenge and there is absolutely no comparison to nailing that perfect up/downshift. And don't forget the art of heel-toeing; balancing the car's handling when you're hard on the brakes and downshifting to second.

The true art of driving a manual skillfully is completely corrupted by an SMG. All you do is pull a wheel-mounted paddle and a computer sorts out the rest of it for you. Where's the skill? Where's the real enjoyment. Sure, it's nice to see an SMG banging in the next gear without using the clutch at all but when you're just a spectator then eventually it becomes tiresome.

Ultimately, an SMG is nothing like a real manual and the former is for people who can't be buggered or who aren't skillfull enough to change gears themselves. SMG is a total wank and changing gears with 100% accuracy and blinding speed just isn't the bloody point.

BTW, driving a manual in heavy traffic is not hard and if it kills your left foot, well...
 


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